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Just 48 hours to go.

England's first Test in Australia starts on the morning of Friday.

With the help of CricViz, we look at where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be won and lost.

It’s challenging to score runs, isn't it?

Batters on each side of the Ashes divide might be wondering why they are even planning to show up.

Much of the pre-series discussion has focused on the apparent difficulty of scoring runs, particularly for the opening match on a Perth pitch described as a "green monster".

Regarding batting in Australia, especially against fast bowling, no nation has been more difficult in which to accumulate runs over the past five years.

Two key factors for this: wickets and cricket balls.

Overall, the pitches produced in Australia have recently proved to be the fastest, most bouncy and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Pace and inconsistent bounce are the ideal combination for tough batting.

A common belief from English cricket paints the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a useless tool for a pace bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, resulting in increased seam movement.

Seam bowling is a more significant asset than swing bowling in Australian conditions.

Since the new Kookaburra, pace bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about problem solving.

When the ball is on top, performances of batters can be the difference, and the reverse is true.

Should this series be dominated by the ball, a batter could have the opportunity to be the difference between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australia seamers?

On this occasion, England have toured Australia with their pace attack mostly fit, while the home side are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Skipper Pat Cummins will miss at least the opening match with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unknown period because of a hamstring injury.

Pat Cummins, Hazlewood and Starc were first united as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 Ashes.

Since then, they have combined to claim 81% of the dismissals taken by Australian fast bowlers in home Tests.

The Australian team have seldom needed alternatives because of the success and robustness of the 'leading trio'.

When Australia have required support, Boland has been sensational, taking 62 wickets in 14 matches at an average under 17.

Aside from Scott Boland, other bowlers of the backup squad have stepped up.

Michael Neser, Richardson and James Pattinson all average under 30 in home Tests.

The last time Australia entered a home match without Cummins and Hazlewood, and lost, was in the year 2012.

On the last two occasions they have competed in Australia without the pair, they have triumphed by a combined 694 runs, featuring a victory against England in Adelaide four years ago.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to go past their star fast bowlers, results have not been affected – England should pay attention.

Challenging Openings

Remember when England struggled to identify an opening batsman to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef went through partners more quickly than Watford go through managers.

Not anymore.

Ever since Ben Duckett and Crawley were united at the top of the England order at the close of 2022, no opening pair in the world has scored more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a partnership has been a factor in Crawley being backed through some patchy form.

The Kent man, who memorably hit the initial delivery of the previous Ashes for a boundary, has also been identified as having the game for Australian conditions.

His average increases when the pace increases.

In comparison, Australia's top order is in a constant state of flux, still seeking to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

Following Warner's retirement at the beginning of 2024, Khawaja has walked out with five various openers in 15 Tests.

Yet to debut Weatherald looks set to become the sixth in 16 Tests on the opening day, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening pair.

It is not just the opening pair that has caused problems for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was shifted to open for the World Test Championship final, then dropped entirely.

Home performances has earned him a recall, most likely back at three.

Across seven matches in the current year, the Australian top order average a collective of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and West Indies have performed worse.

Battle of Spin

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is a single department where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin bowling.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, with 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spin bowlers to ever play.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a moderately successful selection punt, looking short of form after a broken finger, while Will Jacks is primarily a batter.

It would seem logical for the hosts to want Lyon at the front, but bowling spin has been extremely challenging in Australia for the last decade.

During that period, slow bowlers have averaged almost 44 in Australia, albeit Lyon's statistics largely stands up compared to the struggles of overseas spinners.

Lyon's other issue is physically getting on to bowl.

Recall the potency of fast bowling?

It is reducing the time Lyon has with the ball.

During the 2017-18 series here, Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five matches against the Indian team, it was half that number.

Tests in Australia are 25% shorter since the new Kookaburra was brought in, meaning Lyon has fewer opportunities to make an impact.

Right place, right time?

England have a depressing habit of being beaten in an away Ashes before Father Christmas has set off.

The series began in the Gabba, where they have not won since 1986.

Recently, that has been followed by a floodlit Test in Adelaide Oval.

England have a single victory in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while Australia have won 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a city England have played at 14 times since 1970 and won only once, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the first three stops on the tour are the same, only in a rearranged order and under altered conditions.

Perth hosts an series opener for the first occasion, not at the famous Waca – site of past English struggles – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It remains a difficult task, though one the visitors approach with no historical baggage.

Brisbane is the location for the second match, the day-nighter.

The last time Australia played a day-night Test at the Gabba, they were stunned by West Indies.

Likewise, the Aussies are now unaccustomed to playing daytime Tests at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide.

In the two red-ball matches played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia lost one, to India, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a fresh attempt at starting an away Ashes well, albeit with pitfalls.

The home side have secured victory in four out of five matches played at the new Perth ground, though the single loss came in the most recent match – against India the previous year.

Each match at the new venue has been claimed by the team setting a target.

England often overthink floodlit Tests, when data suggest the pink cricket ball does not behave very differently from its red counterpart.

The issue in {day-night matches|